Cam Smith and Denan Kemps’s Origin II picks and Man of the Match predictions

Queensland legend Cameron Smith is picking the Maroons to close out the State of Origin series on Wednesday night at the MCG.

The Maroons won Game I in Sydney 10-38 and will claim the three-game series with a win in Melbourne.

While the Maroons blew out the Blues in Game I once the home side was reduced to 12 men thanks to Joseph Suaali’i’s send-off, Smith is expecting Game II to be far closer.

He’s predicting a low-scoring game and Queensland win at the MCG for the first time since 1994.

He’s also backing Patrick Carrigan to claim Man of the Match honours in the middle and NSW forward Angus Crichton to be the first player to cross over for a try.

“No surprises, I'm tipping Queensland,” Smith said on SEN’s The Captain’s Run.

“I think it's going to be a very, very tight game and low scoring. I’m going to go 16-12 to Queensland.

“And because I think it's going to be a close game and there's going to be a high work rate through the middle, I’m going to go with Patrick Carrigan for Man of the Match.

“He's going to have plenty of touches of the footy and a high work rate defensively.

“Instead of any time try scorer, I’ll go with first try scorer and that’s Angus Crichton.

“I’ve got the Blues scoring first and they’ll be up and about but the Queenslanders, I think they’ll grind out a victory.”

Smith’s co-host former Bronco Denan Kemp is also backing a Queensland victory.

He’s tipping a bigger margin of victory and has QLD number six Tommy Dearden as his Man of the Match.

Kemp is also picking centres Valentine Holmes and Latrell Mitchell to cross over during the clash with the centres going tit for tat.

“I think Queensland to win 24-12,” Kemp said.

“I think if they complete over 85 per cent (of their sets) they are a better footy side.

“In individually on paper, you can look at that New South Wales side and you could make the argument on paper that they’re a better side.

“But I think as a footy team that's been together, that is smooth and good at connecting together when it comes to attack, but also defensive systems … if they compete at 85 per cent and if they play to an 8/10 and New South Wales play to an 8/10, I think Queensland play better footy.

“I think my man of the match is going to be Tommy Dearden.

“For any time try scorer, I'm going to go ‘Val’ (Valentine Holmes) and I’m also going Latrell Mitchell as an anytime try scorer.”

NSW must-win Game II at the MCG to extend the series to a deciding Game III at Suncorp Stadium on July 17.