The numbers that back up Champion Data analyst’s bold 2024 premiership tip

Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne has made an interesting pick for the 2024 premiership.

While they’ll likely finish in sixth and could even miss out on the top eight altogether, Hoyne thinks that the Western Bulldogs are entering September with the best profile in the competition.

The Dogs have won seven of their last nine games with those victories coming at an average of 47 points and Hoyne pointed out some areas of their game that are absolutely flying with the home and away season reaching its end.

“Personally, I don't do tipping. But if I was to tip heading into finals, I think they’re the ones that are potentially going to win this flag this year … and they’re going to do it from sixth,” Hoyne told SEN Sportsday.

“I’ll back history until history changes. This is why, their profile is just ridiculous.

“They are number two for turning possession into a score, and they're number one at denying that. There's only ever been two teams that have been number one and number one. One won a flag by 120 points and the other won a flag by 80 points.

“I know they could miss (finals), but I'm looking at it going they've got a top three turnover game and clearance game

“Their offensive ball movement is number one, they’re number two at defending ball movement.

“They're number one for territory and their work post clearance is number one in the comp.

“It is clearly the best profile in the game this year.”

While the Dogs will likely be coming from the bottom half of the top eight should they qualify, Hoyne thinks that they could be presented with a dream run in September if things fall their way.

That run involves them finishing sixth, Hawthorn finishing seventh, Geelong finishing third – and losing in finals week one to Port Adelaide, with Sydney and GWS finishing first and fourth respectively.

Hoyne thinks that ladder would give the Dogs an ideal travel schedule in September if they were to continue winning until the last Saturday of September.

“Having a look at the big picture, if they win this week their path in September for a team coming from the bottom half of the eight could not be better,” Hoyne said.

“They would play at the MCG against Hawthorn, which would be one of the great Elimination Finals.

“Then they would potentially get Geelong in a Semi-Final because Geelong would only need to make up around about 40 or 50 points on GWS this week to pass them – so that could be at the MCG.

“They would play in Melbourne, Melbourne, Sydney - to play either Sydney or GWS - and back to Melbourne, so the travel factor for the Dogs wouldn't be a thing.

“We could have a September campaign heading in where potentially the three best profiles in the game will be sitting fifth, sixth and seventh … it’s a weird year and weird things can happen.”

First of all, the Dogs will need to beat GWS at Mars Stadium on Sunday afternoon to guarantee their place in the 2024 Finals series.