Betfair's 2026 AFL preview

The AFL season kicks off this Thursday with Opening round, as the Blues travel to Sydney to take on a Swans side tipped by many to have a resurgent 2026.

Betfair’s AFL expert Joel Williams is one of those predicting a red and white rise this year.

“I’m backing the Swans at $10 for the premiership, if you can spec a team with that sort of quality at double digit odds it’s a good fit,” Williams said.

“They improved with Gulden back in the team in the back end of last year, (and) they get Curnow now. They are always around the mark, so grab them now at this price.”

The Swans are equal third favourite on the Exchange, alongside Hawthorn at $10.

The outright favourite is two-time defending premiers Brisbane at $4.70, but Williams expects a better price during the season based on recent history.

“I’ve been heavy on Brisbane each of the last three years but I’m a lay on them at this price.

“There is no doubt they’ll get longer than that during the season. They don’t seem to start the season as fast as those teams that want to prove themselves.”

Williams’ major yearly focus is around the Premiership and Brownlow markets, both areas where he has enjoyed a lot of recent success. “We build books on the Premiership markets and Brownlow markets.

“I’ve taken some of my bigger positions in the last three years on the grand final markets around the Lions.” “For us, the best prices are usually on Betfair. It’s good that future markets are getting more participants and more liquidity.”

Whilst the Lions could be a trading opportunity to back later in the season, Williams feels the opposite is true of their Queensland rivals the Gold Coast Suns.

The Suns are $8.40 for the Premiership, but play Geelong at home followed by West coast, Richmond, and Melbourne to start the season.

“The Suns could be humming come round five, but it’s a great time to get them now. They’d be my strongest team for seeing real improvement in.

“Petracca is a great get. They are well coached and have finals experience now.”

Williams’ other major focus is around the Brownlow medal, with a significant change coming into effect for 2026.

Umpires will now get access to a set of particular statistics post-match, in an attempt to eradicate some of the glaring errors of recent years.

“I was surprised by this (decision) to be honest”, Williams added.

“It does make it a little bit more predictable, because there won’t be those blindingly obvious mistakes.”

“But I hope it doesn’t go any further than this because at the end of the day, the Brownlow Medal is the umpire’s medal. It doesn’t have to be what the stat sheet says.”

With the Swans in action Thursday night, they are again a focus here for Williams this season.

“I am interested in these Swans mids now. Gulden ($23) is fit, Warner ($46) polled very well last year with 21 votes despite being a little down. I think this year will be better than last, and Sydney should win more games.

“I also like prices around Noah Anderson ($12) and Jordan Dawson ($29) who is the Crows clear vote getter.

“Bailey Smith is a bit of a watch, because Geelong have potential to slide a little bit.

“$55 is a good price on Patrick Cripps. I haven’t tipped him to win, but if he’s got his body right, he’ll certainly poll well.”

You can watch/listen to Betfair’s full 2026 AFL Season preview with Joel Williams here and follow Joel’s tips throughout the season here.

Learn more about Joel Williams' latest betting venture at betmatic.app.

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