AFL
8 hours ago
Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Round 8, 2026
By SEN
Round 8 is here as we enter a big weekend of footy.
Things begin with a massive Magpies v Hawks clash at the 'G, while the Showdown shares Friday night alongside the Dogs and Dockers who face off under the roof.
Saturday's highlight is Blues v Saints as TDK and Silvagni face their former club, while Sunday hosts two intriguing games.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
COLLINGWOOD v HAWTHORN
Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - MCG
Rocky at stages, Collingwood have stabilised to produce a positive start to the season, winning four of their first seven to maintain touching distance with the game’s elite. Expected to slide in 2026, the Pies have continued to front up, with a gutsy win over the Blues and an emphatic Anzac Day victory marking two on the trot and a return to top 10 contention. Veteran Scott Pendlebury was the story of Round 7, collecting a career-high 43 touches in his 431st AFL game. He will be rested tonight, alongside Jeremy Howe, while Beau McCreery and Tim Membrey miss with injury. Skipper Darcy Moore returns.
Six on the trot, the Hawks enter Round 8 as one of the game’s top dogs. Answering every question thrown their way, Hawthorn continue to find ways to win, battering the Suns despite the absence of Dylan Moore and James Sicily to mark their fourth win over a serious premiership contender. The Hawks will once again be without Mabior Chol as he continues to rebuild a torn hamstring, while superstar Will Day remains just under a month away. Sicily and Moore return from suspensions, while Ned Reeves celebrates game 50.
This clash presents as a true test of Collingwood’s strength in season 2026. Coming up against one of the in-form sides, the Pies have their work cut out for them if they want to secure a positive result. As for the third-placed Hawks, they enter as clear favourites having beaten the Pies by 64 points in their previous meeting. With Darcy Moore returning for Collingwood, the Pies certainly shouldn’t be ruled out here, particularly entering off the back of a dominant showing at the ‘G last week. That said, the Hawks are simply too strong, and will likely prove as such.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 25 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
WESTERN BULLDOGS v FREMANTLE
Friday - 7:30pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
After starting the season brilliantly with four straight wins, the injury bug has well and truly struck at the Bulldogs. While they could regain some stars (perhaps Tim English) for this clash, they’ll still be without key pieces (Rory Lobb, James O'Donnell and Sam Darcy) at either end of the ground who are now out long term.
That has exposed the club’s depth, which no doubt was one of their weaknesses heading into the campaign. Can the Dogs hold on while they’re undermanned in the coming weeks? That will decide their premiership hopes.
It’s been a brilliant start to 2026 for Fremantle who now sit 6-1 through seven games as they truly begin to cement themselves as one of the competition’s elite teams. The side is incredibly healthy, and with depth in every third of the ground, there’s no wonder why some consider the Dockers their flag favourites.
While they are playing very well, they’ve only beaten two finalists from 2025 at this stage. If they can keep this up against the best, everyone will begin to believe.
If the Dogs were fit and firing, they’d be hard to overlook at Marvel Stadium. But given they’re undermanned, it’s hard to look past the Dockers in this one.
Fremantle have the star power and depth to go with the Bulldogs on ball and could have a distinct advantage in the ruck.
The Dockers also won both of their meetings against the Dogs in 2025 both home and away, including a Round 24 clash that saw them book their September ticket whilst also knocking the Dogs out.
Prediction: Fremantle by 19 points.
Lachlan Geleit
ADELAIDE v PORT ADELAIDE
Friday - 8:10pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
The Crows crashed back down to earth last week after two straight wins. They were comfortably accounted for by the Brisbane Lions, conceding seven goals and kicking just one in the third quarter. The eventual 52-point loss sees Matthew Nicks’ reigning minor premiers sitting 13th with a 3-4 record and a poor percentage (96.1). The Crows simply need to win the games they’re expected to in order to remain in touch with the top eight (or 10). This is one of those fixtures.
Last weekend delivered one of the upsets of the season so far. Not many saw Port’s 30-point victory over Geelong coming, even if their prior form had been sound. Jason Horne-Francis is on a heater, Zak Butters is arguably the top player in the game right now and Mitch Georgiades could’ve kicked 10. Similar to the Crows they’re 3-4 which is around about expectations, whereas their crosstown rivals are under par. That eases some Showdown pressure on the Power.
The Crows have won five of the last six Showdowns, including a 98-point smacking in Round 20 last year. Remarkably, Power coach Josh Carr never lost a Showdown as a player, holding a 10-0 record against the Crows. Coaching in 2026 is a whole different ball game to playing, however. This is shaping up to be a beauty despite the ladder position of the two sides - 13th (Crows) v 11th (Power). On paper the Crows appear slightly stronger and should salute in a customarily tense Showdown.
Prediction: Adelaide by 10 points.
Andrew Slevison
ESSENDON v BRISBANE
Saturday - 12:35pm AEST - Marvel Atadium
It’s hard to argue the impact of Jordan Ridley’s absence from this side. The one win since May last year came with his return to the side and the following week against the Suns, where he was re-injured, was inspiring. Then Anzac Day brought them back down to earth with a thud. Ben McKay’s defensive abilities are in the spotlight without Ridley, but who is banging the door down to take the key post off him down back?
It’s an interesting period for Brad Scott’s men and whether they can keep finding performances like their Melbourne win, or if they dwindle to insignificance and remain one of the league’s easy beats.
Marvel Stadium holds no concerns for Brisbane, having won their last five games at the venue and last losing in May 2024. The loss to Melbourne straightened them up and they switched into gear against an emotionally charged Adelaide.
Oscar Allen’s absence is less than ideal but Logan Morris is more than capable of holding his own, especially against the Ridley-less Bombers defence. This side is merciless when they get a hold of a team and I fear that may be the case this week with a percentage boosting opportunity at hand. The penetrating kick game (1st in comp for kicks and marks) will prove a handful for Essendon who will need to rely on their talls to stint it.
The Lions have already had one upset loss in Victoria when toppled by Melbourne, and I don’t expect that will be repeated here. The 52-point win over a solid Adelaide side is all the evidence needed to know the Lions can click into gear whenever required. The Bombers will be buoyed by some promising recent performances (ANZAC Day aside) but this one may prove a bridge too far.
There is a class gap here and I expect this to be an easy day out for Fagan and his Lions.
Prediction: Brisbane by 77 points.
Ethan Clark
WEST COAST v RICHMOND
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - Optus Stadium
This shapes up as a bottom-of-the-table thriller but don’t expect a clean game.
Richmond rank third in the competition for turnovers while West Coast have the fourth-worst disposal efficiency in the AFL.
Even more interestingly, the Eagles and Tigers have conceded the most points in the league with 840 points and 783 points respectively.
While these stats make it look like the matchup will be a shootout, the two teams are also ranked bottom in the AFL for points scored.
To make matters worse, both sides are riddled with injuries, sharing over 20 injured players between the two teams.
Richmond do have the recent form over West Coast though, defeating the Eagles by 2 and 49 points last year. But will that repeat this time around?
This will be a scrappy game, and the result can go either way, but Optus Stadium could be the saving grace for the Eagles.
West Coast fans always pack out Optus, and if the Eagles can get a roll on, the crowd will help push their home team over the line against the winless Tigers.
Prediction: West Coast by 12 points.
Connor Scanlon
GEELONG v NORTH MELBOURNE
Saturday - 4:35pm AEST - GMHBA Stadium
Chris Scott’s Cats were cast aside by Port in Adelaide last weekend.
There were defensive frailties for all to see with some suggesting it was an alarming performance.
Although it was a poor outing, we’ve learnt over the years not to write off Geelong. Especially when there is a man called Jeremy Cameron who has feasted on the Roos recently, returning 30 goals in his past five including 11 late last season.
This fixture marks Zach Guthrie’s 100th consecutive game making him the 10th current player to achieve that feat.
From a North perspective, they were unlucky not to get over the top of the Giants last week, but that result aside, things are in decent order.
Alastair Clarkson’s side is 4-3 this season and have been in their trio of losses up to their eyeballs. You can put a lot more faith in them these days.
While an upset is a distinct possibility, it wouldn’t be playing the percentages to tip against the Cats at home. Especially against a team who has failed to beat them since 2015.
North appears a much better outfit in 2026 but Geelong will be intent on delivering Scott’s 250th win as coach of the Cats by making it 15 in a row over the Roos.
Prediction: Geelong by 18 points.
Andrew Slevison
CARLTON v ST KILDA
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
A hugely intriguing game as Tom De Koning and Jack Silvagni face their former club for the first time.
While the Saints (3-4) are going better than the Blues (1-6), Carlton will feel their form over the last three weeks in fighting losses to Adelaide, Collingwood and Fremantle means they have a fair chance here.
Carlton have obviously dominated first halves while falling away after half-time in 2026. Luckily for them, the Saints have also been a poor second-half team. If the Blues can conjure another strong half-time lead, this might be the time they hold on.
St Kilda’s defence is their strong suit, and they’ll be hard to penetrate for a Carlton side which often can’t find a way to goal if their contest game isn’t going.
If the Saints match the Blues around the ball, their system and structure should stand up enough.
Still, the Blues would probably feel unlucky with how things have fallen for them this year… I get the feeling this week is when it could finally swing back their way.
Even if that feeling is real, tipping them against a team which is no doubt solid on every line is too much of an ask at this stage.
Prediction: St Kilda by 18 points.
Lachlan Geleit
SYDNEY v MELBOURNE
Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - SCG
It’s fair to say that most people would not have predicted this to be a top 4 clash at the start of the year. Whilst it isn’t perhaps the biggest surprise that the Swans sit atop the ladder, it is surprising to see Melbourne sitting fourth with a 5-2 record.
However, percentage can be a telling indicator of where a club is really at and Sydney’s 178.1 to Melbourne’s 102.8 paints a clear picture of how these two teams are actually travelling.
Sydney has had some comprehensive wins but crucially, were not blown away in their only loss to the Hawks back in Round 2. Whereas so far this season, the Dees have struggled away from the MCG losing to Fremantle at Optus Stadium by 48 points and Essendon at Adelaide Oval by 45 points.
The Swans should regain Isaac Heeney having been sidelined for the win against the Western Bulldogs last week whilst Melbourne will be forced to make at least one change with Jai Culley ruled out with an ACL injury.
An intriguing battle looms between former teammates (albeit briefly) Brodie Grundy - in his 250th - and Max Gawn who have both had strong starts to the season and shape as a key matchup which will go a long way in deciding the outcome of this one.
The Demons’ credentials as a legitimate finals-worthy side will be tested by a Swans outfit that is humming in every area of the field.
Prediction: Sydney by 19 points.
Harry Cumming
GOLD COAST v GWS
Sunday - 7:20pm AEST - People First Stadium
The Sunday twilight fixture will see the 22nd iteration of the ‘Expansion Cup’ come to fruition as the Giants travel up to People First Stadium to take on a Gold Coast side that has shown a few cracks over the last few weeks.
It will also be the first time that Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver will line up against each other in the midfield since their high-profile departures from Melbourne during last year’s trade period. The premiership teammates have both had a strong impact at their respective new clubs and will have to put their friendship aside when they step on the field.
Gold Coast were ultimately unable to match Hawthorn’s intensity last weekend and don’t appear to be the premiership-threatening team that many had declared during the opening rounds of the season. Expect Damien Hardwick to swing the axe this week and add some spark to his side which has been lacking over the last month.
The new games record holder for the Giants, Toby Greene, put in a vintage performance against North Melbourne on Sunday evening in which his two goals were ultimately the difference in a tight contest.
Perhaps most significantly, the Giants hold an impressive record against the Suns having won 16 out of the 21 matches and 15 of the last 16 where the only loss was by 1 point in Round 17 of 2021.
It’s hard to ignore that level of historical dominance and with the Suns faltering, Adam Kingsley’s side have a golden opportunity to take a big scalp on the road.
Prediction: GWS by 13 points.
Harry Cumming
