Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Round 11, 2026

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Another big weekend of footy is ahead of us!

Things start with an intriguing clash between the Hawks and the Crows, although disappointingly, it's at a redeveloping UTAS Stadium.

Friday has another double-header, with Dreamtime at the 'G and the unofficial Ross Lyon Cup between the Dockers and Saints in Perth.

Saturday's highlight is no doubt Scott Pendlebury's record-breaking game which comes against West Coast at the MCG, while there's a fascinating top-four clash between the Cats and Swans in Geelong.

We finally see some good Sunday footy, with two quality matchups including a big Dogs v Dees clash at Marvel Stadium to wrap things up.

Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.

HAWTHORN V ADELAIDE

Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - UTAS Stadium

A difficult stretch has seen the Hawks slip out of their hot early form. With injuries to Jack Gunston, Tom Barrass and Mabior Chol in recent weeks, Hawthorn has picked up just two points in the last three weeks, drawing with Collingwood before suffering back-to-back losses to Fremantle and Melbourne. They enter this week with the returning Chol and Conor Nash, with the glistening hope of a Will Day return as he features at VFL level for the first time this week. UTAS is a fortress for the Hawks, winning all of their last 11 at the venue.

It hasn’t been the perfect start for last year’s minor premiers, but the Crows look to be hitting form at a good time. After losing three straight early in the season, Adelaide has claimed victory in five of their last six games, albeit with a slightly easier schedule. That said, a blistering 10-goal second term against North Melbourne in Round 10 was by far the best football Nicks’ men have played all season, and they will look to carry that momentum into Tasmania. Star key forward Riley Thilthorpe returns to the side, alongside recruit Callum Ah Chee.

While this contest would be the perfect indicator as to which top six hopeful is closer to a flag, the UTAS Stadium factor looms large. This fixture last year was a complete slog and a dogfight in freezing conditions, with the Hawks edging out a 47-44 win. So, which team can handle the conditions better? The Crows were no pushover here last year and will come hard with a relatively full side, but the Hawks know how to win here better than any. It will be close, but their 11-game Tassie win streak is too strong to ignore.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 7 points.

Jaiden Sciberras

RICHMOND V ESSENDON

Friday - 7:45pm AEST - MCG

It’s been a tough slog for Richmond of late. The defeats are piling up amid a ballooning injury list. First quarter aside, the Tigers were ok against St Kilda last Sunday. The end result was a 36-point defeat but it could have been much worse after an opening term of 22 to 3 inside 50s the way of the Saints.

Dreamtime against a struggling Essendon outfit provides Adem Yze with a small glimmer of hope for a second win of the season. Two-time premiership player Jayden Short notches game 200 - the fourth player on the list to achieve the feat. That will serve as extra motivation for the Tiges.

After some decent form a few weeks back, which landed them a win over Melbourne, the Dons have battled away lately. They pushed the Giants in Round 9 but were well below their best last week. The MCG clash with Freo was over before half-time with the Dons kicking 1.8 to the main break. Again Brad Scott’s tenure has been questioned during the week which only serves as extra motivation ahead of a winnable Dreamtime at the ‘G.

This one is a doozy (not a Sam Durham) from a tipping perspective. The Tigers are playing decent footy in patches but lack the class and quality to kick winning scores. And will they even have 26 fit players to name? The Bombers, while not in super form themselves, should be able to grind this one out. From a personnel viewpoint it’s all set up for a narrow Essendon win, which would be a fourth Dreamtime on the trot. But will they make the most of the opportunity?

Prediction: Essendon by 6 points.

Andrew Slevison

FREMANTLE V ST KILDA

Friday - 8:30pm AEST - Optus Stadium

A potential record breaking match here for the Dockers as they aim for a club record 10 consecutive wins, which would also consolidate their top two spot.

The Dockers have been flawless at home since last year’s Elimination Final, and now look a real premiership contender. While some key names have slight injury clouds over their heads, the list is still extremely healthy.

Justin Longmuir’s side really shouldn’t be losing to anyone at Optus Stadium with the way they’re shaping up, and they’ll plan to take home the four points here.

As for St Kilda, they managed to get back onto an even keel at 5-5 after three wins in their last four games. While those victories have come against the league’s cellar-dwellars, Ross Lyon’s side would be growing in confidence, and they’ll consider themselves a chance to cause an upset here.

Entering a tough period in the next five weeks, St Kilda will be desperate to show they can compete with the league’s best. But it won’t be easy with some key names out.

While St Kilda are a top six team in 2026 based off percentage, they’re still a clear rung below this Fremantle side. It’ll take a Ross Lyon masterclass to prevail here, and while you can’t rule that out, it’s simply to hard to pick against the Dockers.

Freo bat deeper than the Saints in both the midfield and up forward, and while St Kilda possess a strong defence, the Dockers are league-best in this category.

Simply put, it’s hard to envision St Kilda kicking a winning score.

Prediction: Fremantle by 28 points.

Lachlan Geleit

NORTH MELBOURNE V GOLD COAST

Saturday - 1:15pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

Yet to claim a proper scalp this season, albeit with significantly improved performances, is a big question hanging over Alastair Clarkson’s men. Last weekend was the most distressing outing of the season against Adelaide and would have to illicit a response back at Marvel.

If they have come anywhere as a group in 2026, now is not the time to put together back-to-back stinkers like the Kangaroos of old. Key pillars at both ends must lift; namely Nick Larkey, Cooper Trembath, Jack Darling and Griffin Logue who have lowered their colours in recent weeks.

This is a genuine test for Gold Coast to overcome a poor post-Darwin record in recent times. All of the last three seasons have seen a 1-3 win/loss month following their NT stay and Damian Hardwick would be determined to re-write that history.

Sam Clohesy returns after a two-week suspension which solidifies the Suns’ structure with the loss of Lachie Weller. A 31.7% win record at Marvel Stadium must be overcome, but they have won their last three at the venue so they’re well on their way. Building nicely in recent weeks.

It’s probably North Melbourne’s best chance at a proper upset win this season coming off a poor loss to Adelaide, up against a team that traditionally performs poorly at Marvel and after their trips to Darwin. But this Gold Coast side is different to those gone by and have been putting away teams around them well this season. Ben King will be hard to restrict with this North defence.

Expect the Suns to be too strong against a team that still has some ground to make up before we take them seriously.

Prediction: Gold Coast by 26 points.

Ethan Clark

GEELONG V SYDNEY

Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - GMHBA Stadium

This is some fixture!

It’ll largely fly under the radar due to the Scott Pendlebury celebrations at the MCG, but rest assured there’ll be Cats and Swans fans, and wider footy audience, all around who will be tuning into this.

3rd versus 1st down at The Cattery, two of the most in-form teams in the competition, stars everywhere and plenty on the line.

The Cats have won three of the past five clashes with the Swans, plus the SCG draw in 2023. The last time Sydney played at GMHBA - in Round 6, 2023 - they were belted by 93 points. They also lost at home by 43 points in Round 23 last year.

They’re much better equipped right now and will undoubtedly put forward a more positive showing.

But are they going well enough to get up? It feels like they’re just going at the moment, only beating Collingwood by six points, North Melbourne by eight before that - they arguably could’ve lost both - and seeing off Melbourne by just 17 at home prior.

Dean Cox’s side continues to find ways to win though. Sign of a good team.

Chris Scott’s Cats have really hit their straps since losing to Port Adelaide in Round 7. Crushing wins over the Roos (49 points), the Magpies (54), and the latest over the reigning champs Brisbane Lions by 41 points on their own Gabba turf.

Their game is in perfect order at the minute, scoring 122 or more in five of their last six. The Swans have hit the ton in eight of 10 mind you, but at home and given the form they’re in, the Cats get the nod ever so slightly.

Prediction: Geelong by 9 points.

Andrew Slevison

COLLINGWOOD V WEST COAST

Saturday - 4:35pm AEST - MCG

This match centres around just one man, Scott Pendlebury.

Expect 90,000+ at the MCG as the 38-year-old reaches game 433, the all-time V/AFL games record.

Collingwood have clearly put everything towards this game both on and off-field, and they should welcome back a raft of big names for this occasion with Pendlebury, Pat Lipinski, Darcy Moore and Darcy Cameron likely to return to the side.

That added experience should make them a class above West Coast on every line, particularly at home.

Even if the Magpies haven’t won in their last three, they really should have beaten all of Hawthorn, Fremantle and Sydney in the last couple of months. If they can match it with those sides, they can take care of the Eagles.

In saying that, West Coast did find some form in Round 10, defeating GWS at home by 17 points at Optus Stadium.

Understandably with where they’re at, the Eagles are a very different proposition at home compared to away. They were dealt with by both St Kilda and Melbourne by a combined 133 points in their two trips to Victoria this year.

While they should be better than a massive blowout, the Magpies surely do not lose this game given the stage this game has been put on.

Let’s just hope Pendlebury can do something special in one of the most historic games in league history.

Prediction: Collingwood by 41 points.

Lachlan Geleit

PORT ADELAIDE V CARLTON

Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Adelaide Oval

Has a new coach breathed life into Carlton?

After starting the season 1-8 with Michael Voss at the helm, the remainder of the 2026 season was looking dire for the Blues. But after Voss parted ways with the club, interim senior coach Josh Fraser secured Carlton their second victory of the year last week against the Dogs.

The Carlton players were fired up and showed heart in their maiden game under Fraser, with skipper Patrick Cripps back to his best. A win for Carlton against Port is very winnable here and would be monumental in helping the Blues salvage some positives from this season.

While it is a winnable game for Carlton, Port Adelaide are a tough team to crack, especially at Adelaide Oval. Despite having a record of 3-7, Port boasts a percentage of 105.2%. In fact, they have lost five games by 14 points or less this season. And to make matters worse for the Blues, they have lost each of their last eight interstate night matches.

Carlton is every chance to win this game but expect Port Adelaide to defeat Fraser’s men in a nail-biter. Zak Butters will dominate the midfield for Port once again, and he should prove to be the gamechanger as he has done on multiple occasions this season already.

Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval will be a too difficult task for the Blues and Port should increase their percentage once again, improving their record to 4-7.

Prediction: Port Adelaide by 11 points.

Connor Scanlon

GWS V BRISBANE

Sunday - 12:30pm AEST - ENGIE Stadium

Both teams are entering this clash looking to make amends for poor losses last week. The Giants were humbled by a Harley Reid masterclass out west and their depth is being tested with the likes of Jesse Hogan and Sam Taylor at least another week away from returning.

The task doesn’t get any easier for the Giants who come up against a star-studded lineup that lowered their colours in primetime last Thursday night. Geelong outclassed the Lions who went missing in the second half, kicking only 4 goals after half time. It followed an equally dismal second half against Carlton who nearly pulled off a miracle upset.

The pressure is starting to mount on Brisbane who are yet to recapture their scintillating form that has seen them play three Grand Finals in a row. There’s a long way to go in this season yet, but Chris Fagan would be hoping to see a lift from his side as they travel to Engie Stadium.

Interestingly, the last time these two sides faced each other at Engie Stadium was the 2024 Semi-Final in which a Joe Daniher performance for the ages helped Brisbane to a miraculous come-from-behind victory en route to their first premiership since 2003.

Looking back, that appears to be a crossroads moment as the Giants suffered a straight sets exit and squandered a genuine opportunity at a maiden flag…and we all know what Brisbane have achieved since that game.

Prediction: Brisbane by 23 points.

Harry Cumming

WESTERN BULLDOGS V MELBOURNE

Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

Melbourne are back in their preferred timeslot of Sunday 3:15pm, though this time their fans will have to follow them over to the Docklands as they face the Western Bulldogs at Marvel.

The Dees come up against a Bulldogs side that has all but lost its bite since their strong start to the season. Injuries have taken their toll with a slew of concussions casting doubt over several players including Tim English and Tom Liberatore, who are both listed as TBC.

The Dogs looked a shell of the team that had started the season with so much promise when they fell to a Carlton side who had only registered one win for the season until last week. New coach bounce aside, the signs were not great, and they now have the challenge of facing a red-hot Melbourne.

The Dees continue to shatter expectations in 2026 and have flipped the season’s narrative on its head, but Steven King will be cautious not to let his side get ahead of itself. The last time that happened, Essendon pumped them by 45 points. Melbourne have been dominant at the MCG, but are 1-3 away from their beloved home ground and need some scalps on the road (albeit a short drive to the Docklands) to be a genuine contender.

Expect Max Gawn to dominate in the ruck against an undermanned Western Bulldogs.

Prediction: Melbourne by 17 points.

Harry Cumming