Seventh Heaven: The three sides primed for 2026 premiership

Ball movement. Territory. Defence.

These are the areas you must be proficient in if you want to win the 2026 AFL premiership.

Champion Data’s numbers tell us that 18 of the last 19 premiers have been in the top seven for these three key statistical areas.

Stats guru Daniel Hoyne described it as ‘Seventh Heaven’, outlining what you need to be a genuine contender in this day and age.

“Seventh Heaven. I’ll back history until history changes,” Hoyne said on SEN’s Sportsday.

“It’s always a bit of a guide, of course history can change and teams can challenge and defy history.

“These are three key areas of the game as a starting point that we tend to dive into to see whether or not your game is in good shape, and as the season goes whether or not you can challenge come Preliminary Final and Grand Final time.

“The reason why we call it Seventh Heaven is because the premier has been top seven in these stat areas in 18 of the last 19 years.

“Ball movement - your ability to be able to go from one end of the ground to the other. You don’t want to rely on it but just to be able to have it there to challenge the opposition. You’ve got to be top seven.

“Territory - inside 50 differential. You don’t want the game living in your back half. You don’t need to necessarily be one, two or three, you just want to have equal share or slightly greater than equal share.

“Defensively we’re bracketing your ability. The points against aspect, points against from turnover, and are you protecting your back half. You don’t want to be giving up easy scores. Make it hard for the opposition to go from one end of the ground to the other.

“You go back over 19 years and 18 of the premiers have been in there. They’ve gone tick, tick, tick.

“On average each year there’s only two and a half teams that do this. So it’s a small group.”

After Round 14, Hoyne provided an update on where all 18 teams stand entering the final seven weeks of the season.

“Right now, at Round 14, let’s go through Seventh Heaven,” Hoyne said on SEN Sportsday.

Seventh Heaven

“There are again, only three teams that are in Seventh Heaven at the moment.

“Sydney, Hawthorn and Geelong are in Seventh Heaven at the moment.

“There are another three teams that are just marginally outside that group. They are one box off.”

Just outside

“Fremantle, Brisbane and Gold Coast. The reason why Fremantle are out – their ability to move it from one end of the ground to the other is bottom six in the comp.

“We saw the week before against North, it looked different. Let’s see what it looks like against Geelong. Absolutely, that can change.

“I wouldn’t say they can’t win it, but I’ll be backing history. They’ve got 10 games to go, 10 weeks to go. The margin between 13th and 7th isn’t too great.”

A third of the way

“Then you’ve got another three that have one of the three areas ticked off. That’s Collingwood, Melbourne and GWS. They have one of the three areas ticked off.

“That leaves half the competition that don’t have one of the three areas ticked off.”

All out... marginally

“Port Adelaide and Adelaide are the two that stand out in that bottom half – they aren’t too far away in what they’re doing defensively and what they’re doing from a territory perspective.

“It isn’t horrendous. In another seven weeks’ time, that could easily change given that you are marginally off.

“St Kilda, likewise, only marginally off in what they’re doing ball movement and territory wise.”

Miles off

“Then the rest; Carlton, the Dogs, North Melbourne, West Coast, Essendon and Richmond are a fair way off having any of the three areas ticked off.”