Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Round 14, 2026

A solid weekend of footy awaits us as we get into the middle of the mid-season bye rounds.

With 14 teams taking to the field, things begin with a potential top-six shaping clash between the Dogs and Crows at Marvel Stadium, while Friday sees another game with big September ramifications in Geelong v Gold Coast at GMHBA Stadium.

Saturday's slate won't excite many, while Richmond v Brisbane in Hobart looms as a fairly bizarre mid-year fixture.

Things wrap up on Sunday afternoon with St Kilda meeting GWS at Marvel Stadium, which could be a fun tussle under the roof.

Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.

WESTERN BULLDOGS V ADELAIDE

Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

ANOTHER close encounter for the Dogs last week. ANOTHER single digit win. They came from behind to beat Hawthorn by six points having trailed by 27 points at half-time, making it three victories on the trot. That’s four wins from their last five games by a combined 15 points. The 8-5 record has them sitting sixth and very much within striking distance of the top four… especially if they beat the Crows. 2024 draftee Luke Kennedy will become the Doggies’ sixth debutant of 2026.

Just like tonight’s opponents, the Crows have won four of five to reignite their season. Just like the Dogs, they’ve had multiple single digit wins – in fact they’ve pulled off three one-point triumphs – including last week’s tense affair with Geelong. Matthew Nicks will have to deal with a few personnel woes with Cal Ah Chee (hamstring), Jordon Butts (hamstring) and Taylor Walker (suspension) all going out of the side. At 7-5 and sitting eighth, this looms as a crunch clash under the roof at Marvel. They lose Taylor Walker (suspension), Cal Ah Chee (hamstring) and Jordon Butts (calf) but get Riley Thilthorpe, Nick Murray and Luke Pedlar back.

The ‘Cardiac Canines’ are the new masters of tight finishes, winning six times by six points or less in 2026. We’re tipping another tight one against an Adelaide side that has been involved in seven single-digit games already (3-4), making it 13 between the two clubs this year. The Crows have won their past four at Marvel, so playing under the roof does not daunt them. But the Doggies have that fight in them right now and get the nod at home… in another potential heart-attack inducing nail-biter.

Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 5 points.

Andrew Slevison

GEELONG V GOLD COAST

Friday - 7:40pm AEST - GMHBA Stadium

After a brilliant run of form, the Cats have suffered back-to-back losses to hinder their top two chase.

Four straight convincing wins, Geelong appeared to have surged back into premiership contention, however, after a shock loss to the Blues, the Cats were once again halted, losing by a single point against the Crows in a thriller at Adelaide Oval.

Back home for the first time since their win over Sydney, the Cats will look to maintain their status as a top four team amid a difficult run of fixtures. They enter tonight without star Tom Stewart, who misses with concussion.

Riding the same form line as their opposition, the Suns picked up a few important wins before dropping back-to-back games.

After an incredibly disappointing late defeat to North Melbourne, Gold Coast hosted Brisbane with the opportunity to kill their rivals’ season, however, were comfortably dealt with. Now, with just seven wins from 12, the Suns need to kick into gear before they find themselves too far behind.

Tonight’s game marks the first of a difficult fixture run, featuring six top 10 teams in the next six weeks. John Noble plays game 150.

Two teams desperate to get back on the winners list.

For the Cats, two losses decided by within a kick will hurt, but will fire up the side as they plan their charge back into contention. No Stewart hurts, but as Connor O’Sullivan continues to grow, the side certainly has the cavalry to cover.

As for the Suns, all eyes are on their star-studded midfield, struggling severely across the season despite the top form of Christian Petracca.

With a nightmare fixture run, the Suns really need a result here, but given the Cats’ home ground advantage, it’s hard to see them dropping this one.

Prediction: Geelong by 21 points.

Jaiden Sciberras

MELBOURNE V ESSENDON

Saturday - 1:15pm AEST - MCG

Undefeated at the MCG from seven games was not on many bingo cards pre-season for Melbourne. Now coming up against a side languishing in turmoil at the bottom of the ladder, the outcome of this one should be self-explanatory.

But that’s not always how footy works and this Bombers side got the better of Melbourne at Gather Round by an incomprehensible 45 points for their only win this year. This is a massive chance to solidify the Demons’ spot in the top six and even keep themselves in the hunt for a top four spot with a needed percentage boost.

Jordan Ridley back for his third game of the season is a huge result given he featured in the only win of the season against this Melbourne side. If Essendon are any chance here, they will have to analyse in-depth how they managed that Demons win back in April in what is still one of the most bizarre results of the season.

They are still a couple of weeks away from getting some more troops back around Ridley, so this will be a huge uphill battle for the Bombers.

This should make it eight from eight at the ‘G for Melbourne as Essendon awaits a few more troops, despite the return of Jordan Ridley. Depending on the weather today, it may be a scrappy and lower scoring affair but either way, the Demons will be far too good.

A more competitive showing against Carlton, on top of the win earlier this season against the Dees will give some hope for Bombers faithful but it would be one of the great anomalies if Essendon can repeat the dose and get their second win of the season today.

Prediction: Melbourne by 57 points.

Ethan Clark

NORTH MELBOURNE V WEST COAST

Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - Optus Stadium

It would be an unmitigated disaster if North Melbourne were to lose both of their sold WA 'home' games.

Things started shockingly for North in their trip west last week against Fremantle, going down by a whopping 124 points to Fremantle in Bunbury.

While this one is in the more familiar surrounds of Optus Stadium and against a lesser opponent in West Coast, the Roos would still want to tread carefully.

While the Eagles are 4-9 on the season, their home record of 3-4 is certainly solid, and in their last two losses at the venue they've only gone down by 11 or less points.

North's route to winning the game will be simply outclassing the Eagles around the footy and with ball in hand. They have more talent on paper, and if they get their outside game going, they should still be a level above Andrew McQualter's side.

It feels like West Coast's hopes rest primarily on the likes of Harley Reid and Jake Waterman. If this duo can have a big say both around the ball and up forward, the Eagles will jump on their backs and put up a strong effort.

North do deserve to go in slight favourites here, but they'd absolutely want to win given this counts as one of their all-important home games.

Prediction: North Melbourne by 10 points.

Lachlan Geleit

PORT ADELAIDE V SYDNEY

Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Adelaide Oval

Talk about a close escape.

With St Kilda up by as much as 33 points and leading from the latter stages of the first quarter onwards, Dean Cox’s men looked to be the victims of an upset. But a last-second Jai Serong goal saved the Swans’ blushes against the Saints, seeing them remain within a game of the ladder-leading Dockers.

But it didn’t come without cost.

Tom McCartin has suffered yet another concussion, ruling him out for an indefinite period, while Justin McInerney tore his hamstring, seeing him miss the next 8-10 weeks.

Against an in-form West Coast at Optus Stadium, Port Adelaide held their nerve in the final quarter to break their four-game losing streak and claim their fourth win of the season.

It was a much-needed win for the Power after coming oh so close in Round 3 against the same opposition, with a much-improved clearance performance proving to be the difference last week.

Josh Lai experienced a head knock, which forces at least one change for their best 23. But they could be welcoming back Kane Farrell, who will need to pass a fitness test after suffering groin soreness.

In their last match at the Adelaide Oval, Sydney managed to beat the Power for the first time in nine years in the City of Churches. That appears likely to continue into this clash.

The Swans’ attack has been the best in the competition for points scored, with the next best 173 points behind them. And despite Port Adelaide’s defence being well regarded, it’s hard to see them stopping Sydney.

Prediction: Sydney by 31 points.

Nicholas Quinlan

RICHMOND V BRISBANE

Sunday - 1:10pm AEST - Ninja Stadium

Brisbane broke their run of three straight losses with an impressive win in last week’s QClash against the Suns and will be looking to build some momentum coming up against Richmond.

Many of Brisbane’s star players who had started the year poorly returned to form at People First Stadium with strong performances from Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft.

The most pleasing aspect for Chris Fagan would be the incredible development of Logan Morris who booted a career best 7.4. It’s important to remember that Morris has only just turned 21 but already boasts an impressive resume. After 57 games, the young forward has kicked 109 goals and won two premierships. Not a bad start to a career at all – in fact it’s hard to believe he was taken at Pick 31 back in 2023.

These two sides also have a fascinating history. There had been a remarkable period where Richmond won 15 games in a row against the Lions between 2010 and 2020 but that has since turned around with Brisbane winning 6 of their last 8 matches.

The Tigers have had plenty of time over the bye to work out what went wrong against the Swans when they conceded 170 points and lost by 114 points. They will be bolstered with Maurice Rioli, Tom Brown, Taj Hotton and Zane Peucker all available for selection whilst veteran pair Toby Nankervis and Tom Lynch are possible inclusions. The injuries continue to strike at Tigerland though, with Jonty Faull ruled out for the season with a bone stress injury in his back.

Brisbane may be back in a very big way come final siren on Sunday afternoon.

Prediction: Brisbane by 39 points.

Harry Cumming

ST KILDA V GWS

Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

This shapes as an intriguing battle, the Giants are coming off the bye having had impressive wins against Brisbane and Melbourne whilst a much-improved St Kilda were banking the four points at the SCG until Jai Serong kicked the winner with 13 seconds left on the clock.

It was a result that perhaps sums up the Saints’ season so far, glimpses of brilliance but ultimately failing to make it count where it matters, on the ladder. The performance against the Swans was much improved following a horrendous, goalless opening half against Hawthorn the week prior. There is no doubting the importance of Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera to this side and the Giants will be wary of his ability to impact the game.

The Giants are set to receive a huge boost with Jesse Hogan, Ryan Angwin and Cody Angove all potentially set to return from injuries. Adam Kingsley has managed to keep his side within touching distance of the best teams in the competition and look a dangerous prospect at 10th. As the cavalry continue to return, there is every chance that the Giants could make a run towards September, an achievement they have secured in each of Kingsley’s three years at the helm.

This is a must-win game for St Kilda who need to take advantage of their home matches at Marvel in a season that has failed to deliver on the expectations that the club very publicly set for itself.

If the Saints play like they did against the Swans, then they’re a strong chance at winning this one, but an increasingly dangerous GWS coming off a break could be hard to beat.

Prediction: GWS by 5 points.

Harry Cumming

Byes

• Carlton
• Collingwood
• Fremantle
• Hawthorn