Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Round 18, 2026

Round 18 is upon us, sandwiched with both the best... and the worst of what football has to offer.

Kicking us off on Thursday night, table toppers Fremantle will look to rebound from their second loss this year, hosting second placed Sydney in a 1v2 blockbuster.

This round will also see a number of prospective September teams play off for what could prove to be a crucial four points, with Collingwood taking on North Melbourne, Carlton facing Hawthorn, GWS taking on the Cats and the Crows looking to bury Gold Coast.

The weekend ends with two relatively tame fixtures, with Melbourne taking on Richmond and the in-form Brisbane Lions hosting the out-of-form Bombers.

Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.

FREMANTLE V SYDNEY

Thursday - 8:10pm AEST - Optus Stadium

Fremantle’s incredible 14-game winning streak came to a close last weekend, losing to the GWS Giants to end their record-breaking run in disappointing fashion. That said, a loss gives us a chance to finally see how this Fremantle side responds to adversity. In years past, the Dockers have struggled to get over the line in big games, particularly at the pointy end of the season. Now, with a huge game against premiership opposition off the back of a loss, Justin Longmuir’s men have the opportunity to prove their premiership status. Hayden Young misses with a groin.

The Swans needed a response after losing to Brisbane and respond they did. A 35-point win separated entirely by a mammoth first term, Sydney never truly exited second gear after quarter time. Now, the premiership hopefuls face their biggest test since… two weeks prior. A 43-point loss to the Lions was a wake-up call just in time for a clash with the Dockers, with top spot up for grabs if they can get over the line. Logan McDonald misses with a quad.

A playoff for top spot. If Sydney win, they go level on points with the flying Dockers, and given they can make up some percentage, top spot could be theirs to lose. As for Fremantle, a win here leaves them two games clear atop the table with just two losses for the season. A true September preview, neither side will be willing to give an inch. Fremantle enter with the advantage of Wharfie Time, while the Swans enter with the advantage of a win in their last matchup. This clash could seriously go either way, but we like the Dockers in a classic.

Prediction: Fremantle by 9 points.

Jaiden Sciberras

COLLINGWOOD V NORTH MELBOURNE

Friday - 7:40pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

The Maggies outlasted the Suns in a fiery affair on the Gold Coast last weekend to make it three wins on the trot. That result has Craig McRae’s side sitting ninth, six points out of the top six. Nick Daicos was huge again and is well on his way to winning that elusive Brownlow, while Tim Membrey and Dan McStay were vital with three goals each. If the Pies are to challenge for a straight spot in the finals then it’s games like this against opponents below that they simply MUST win.

Alastair Clarkson’s Roos were well below their best in losing to Port Adelaide by 21 points away from home last Sunday. That ended a three-game winning run which had put them in the mix for a wildcard slot. Harry Sheezel racked them up again with 40 touches while Luke Davies-Uniacke (31 disposals) and Charlie Comben (20 disposals, six marks) were both excellent. Residing in 11th position with an 8-8 record, it’s safe to say this match is crucial for North’s hopes and dreams in 2026. This marks Clarko’s 600th game as a player and coach.

The Magpies have been making a habit of beating the Roos in recent times. They’ve won six in a row, and eight of the past nine, with North’s latest victory coming in 2019. It’s a rare Pies home game at Marvel Stadium and just their third look under the roof this year. It’s a very rare Friday night fixture for the Roos who are 6-1 at the dome in 2026.

The black and white are more dependable than the royal blue and white when it comes to predictions so they’ll get the nod in what promises to be a tight contest.

Prediction: Collingwood by 10 points.

Andrew Slevison

ST KILDA V PORT ADELAIDE

Saturday - 1:15pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

St Kilda is averaging roughly 98 points per game at Marvel Stadium this year, which shows significant improvement, and poses a more daunting trip for interstate teams than years gone by.

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera has compiled 90 disposals in his last two matches and would be expecting more attention, while Max Hall, Hugo Garcia and Darcy Wilson have found consistency at AFL level and require thought from Josh Carr.

If these Saints are to make anything of this transitional season, a win here is non-negotiable. Let’s see if they have what it takes to keep in touch with the top 10.

Port have lost their last four games at Marvel Stadium, which makes for unpleasant reading, but would be buoyed by a gallant loss to Hawthorn last time at the venue. However, their recent form – wins against North Melbourne and Adelaide - suggests this one is very winnable, and with Zak Butters doing everything in his power to get this team going, they are a big chance to atone the home loss to the Saints in Round 5.

It’s a real eight-point game here; a win sees Port level with St Kilda, a loss sees them remain well and truly in the bottom four.

With just seven games left until finals, it’s getting serious now for these two sides. Both would feel they are owed a few more wins and would be disappointed with where they sit on the ladder. We’re in for a sneaky good game here with both sides coming in at full tilt and leaving nothing on the table.

Should be a brutally fought clash to the final siren, but expecting the Saints to roll on as they set their sights firmly on September.

Prediction: St Kilda by 15 points.

Ethan Clark

GWS V GEELONG

Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - ENGIE Stadium

The Giants have done what no side has been able to do since Round 1 - beat Fremantle. With Jake Stringer delivering one of his best performances in orange and charcoal in the nation’s capital, GWS secured a 21-point victory, seeing them within touching distance of a wildcard spot. That win also marks their first premiership points since their mid-season bye in Round 13, which has traditionally been a reset point for Adam Kingsley’s men. But it hasn’t come without cost - Lachie Whitfield is out with concussion.

With the Thursday night lights on GMHBA Stadium, the Cats were handed their first loss at their home ground this season by the in-form Lions, who dominated the kicking game against them. That marks Geelong’s fourth loss in their last five, seeing them slip into the wildcard spots. There is still time for the Cats to turn their form around and get back into the top six, but they wouldn’t want to wait much longer.

GWS have won their last four games against Geelong. But will that streak continue beyond this week? While they are fresh off being the ladder leaders, they have been consistently inconsistent, having only won back-to-back games once this season. Throw in the Cats’ clean bill of health compared to the Giants and Geelong should just get the job done in their final interstate match of the home and away season.      

Prediction: Geelong by 5 points

Nicholas Quinlan

CARLTON V HAWTHORN

Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - MCG

Josh Fraser’s unbeaten start to AFL level coaching remains intact after the Blues survived Richmond’s late surge and held on for a two-point win last week. The seven-game winning streak has remarkably taken Carlton into the top 10, but securing a wildcard place is far from done yet, with three contenders beneath it, all with superior percentage. Having already knocked off Geelong at MCG in round 12, the Blues have an opportunity to make a statement on Saturday night.

Hawthorn made four forced changes to its line-up ahead of last week’s clash with Melbourne in Launceston. The Hawks started the game poorly, kicking just 1.3 to the Demons' 13.8 in the first half. The Hawks then matched Melbourne in the third quarter, before going berserk in the final term, kicking nine goals to two. It was too little, too late though, as the final quarter domination only trimmed the margin to 35 points. Hawthorn will be far from full strength with four of the best 23 confirmed outs, Karl Amon (knee) and Jarman Impey (hamstring) in doubt while Nick Watson (hamstring) has been ruled out again.

Last week’s tale of two halves left more questions than answers about Hawthorn’s depth, and competitiveness with a compromised line-up. Carlton won’t be filled with confidence from its sluggish round 17 performance either. The Blues did show promise late though, proving it can manage a close finish. In Josh Fraser’s biggest test yet, we’ll soon find out how Carlton stands up on the big occasion. We could also find out just how vulnerable an understrength Hawthorn team is.

Prediction: Hawks by 5 points.

Eddie Cook

ADELAIDE V GOLD COAST

Saturday - 8:10pm AEST - Adelaide Oval

The Crows bounced back from their shock Showdown loss with an away win over West Coast. With Riley Thilthorpe’s late withdrawal, Darcy Fogarty was the focal point up forward, taking seven marks and kicking four goals to give him nine in two weeks. Jordan Dawson was also valuable with 27 disposals, one goal and three intercept marks, while Ben Keays stood up when it mattered with two late goals. Thilthorpe (illness) and Wayne Milera (hamstring) are expected to return, while Callum Ah Chee and Luke Pedlar (hamstrings) could join them, leaving just Mitch Hinge on the injury list.

Gold Coast fell to a sixth straight loss in a fiery affair against Collingwood last week. While the performance was a big improvement on their uncompetitive round 16 flogging from Fremantle, the Suns still appear a mile off their early-season form when they looked a finals certainty. The Suns find themselves in a precarious 14th, just four points ahead of the bottom four, but still only four points out of the top 10.

The Suns are fighting a losing battle to keep their season alive and are in desperate need of a win. But what effect will last week’s performance have on tonight’s mentality? Though the result didn’t go the Suns’ way, they showed a heightened competitiveness for all full four quarters and hopefully it allows them to go into tonight with more confidence. The Crows should be a level above Gold Coast, and have deservingly been tipped, but their susceptibility to a shaky performance leaves us with some doubt.

Prediction: Adelaide by 13 points.

Eddie Cook

WESTERN BULLDOGS V WEST COAST

Sunday - 1:10pm AEST - Marvel Stadium

Don’t overthink this game. The Western Bulldogs will simply win!

Despite coming off a 35-point loss to the second-placed Swans, this matchup should be a layup for the Dogs.

In four of their last five games against one another, the Dogs have defeated the Eagles by an average of 81.5 points – astonishing numbers. If that trend continues here, it could be an absolute shellacking under the roof at Marvel.

Additionally, West Coast has only won three games this season, with their latest victory coming in Round 12 against the Bombers. While their list is stacked with talent, it is still far too young to consistently compete against more matured outfits like the Dogs.

Luke Beveridge’s men will however be down in troops across the backline with Nick Coffield entering concussion protocols and Connor Budarick potentially missing the rest of the season thanks to a high-grade syndesmosis injury. If the Eagles are to pull off an upset, they will need to expose this vulnerability down back.

While the Dogs haven’t quite lived up to their high expectations from earlier in the season, they should absolutely win this matchup. At home, under the roof, against a team they have recently continued to demolish, all signs are pointing to a Western Bulldogs thrashing of the Eagles.

Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 42 points.

Connor Scanlon

MELBOURNE V RICHMOND

Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - MCG

In some ways, the Dees are back where it all began for them this season with a 3:15pm Sunday home game at the MCG. It might have felt a bit trivial at the start of the year and many expected their hot start to be just a flash in the pan. Well, Melbourne are now 10-6 and after their win (albeit somewhat dubious) over Hawthorn in Launceston last weekend, they have to be taken seriously.

On the other side of the coin, Richmond continues to do it the hard way in 2026. A 2-point loss to Carlton last week was deflating as yet again, the Tigers were left to rue their missed opportunities. In some positive news, Taj Hotton commanded a strong presence with the ball and looked much more mature than just the 10 games he’s played so far in an injury-interrupted start to his career.

Richmond could be boosted by some inclusions with Sam Grlj likely to return after being managed last week whilst veteran Dion Prestia is also set to put his hand up for selection. Meanwhile, a quartet of Demons face a fitness test with Bayley Fritsch the notable name following a five-goal performance against the Hawks in which he sustained a dislocated finger.

Melbourne have won their last seven games against Richmond by an average of a tick over five goals. Expect that to continue on Sunday afternoon.

Prediction: Melbourne by 32 points.

Harry Cumming

BRISBANE V ESSENDON

Sunday - 4:40pm AEST - Gabba

Look away Bombers fans, this could get ugly.

Brisbane looks just about back to the form that has seen them play in the last three Grand Finals. They’ve now won their last four on the trot and it’s largely been off the back of some inspirational performances from the likes of Will Ashcroft and Josh Dunkley who have both shaken off a slow start to the season.

The last two matches against premiership fancies Sydney and Geelong shaped as a season-defining test for the Lions but they passed with flying colours and now have the opportunity to further boost their chances of a top four spot with a win over the struggling Bombers.

This is the second time these two sides face each other in 2026 with the Round 9 match at Marvel a comfortable 64-point victory to the Lions. Brad Scott was still the coach then, but since his departure not much has changed. Interim coach Dean Solomon appeared dejected following last week’s loss to St Kilda. In some good news for Essendon, Archie Roberts looks set to return from a shoulder injury whilst Brisbane gets a massive injection of experience with Hugh McCluggage and Dayne Zorko back in the side.

Chris Fagan just knows how to get the best out of his side when they need to step up. Time will tell if Brisbane can ride this wave of momentum deep into September.

Prediction: Brisbane by 47 points.

Harry Cumming