Champion Data: The Hawks flaw Fremantle will look to expose

Champion Data has uncovered a considerable weakness in Hawthorn’s game that could significantly cost them ahead of tonight’s Qualifying Final against Fremantle.

Over the 2025 off-season, addressing their midfield mix was by far the number one priority at Hawthorn. With Will Day’s continued struggles with injury and a clear lack of depth on ball, the Hawks were desperate to add reinforcements on the inside.

And with Zach Merrett desperate for Dingley, it appeared as though the Hawks would get their wish.

However, the Bombers were unwavering in their stance on their then-captain, refusing to accept a lucrative trade offer and in turn, leaving the Hawks without any improvement in the engine room.

That said, substantial improvement from the likes of Josh Ward and Cam Mackenzie, paired with the return of Will Day and the continued form of Jai Newcombe appeared to have solved the problem internally.

On the season, Hawthorn averaged 37.3 clearances per game – equal fifth in the competition - holding their own and transitioning into one of the game's most threatening clearance teams.

That said, as Champion Data has uncovered, the Hawks are still having trouble out of the midfield, and it’s an issue that the Dockers well and truly exposed in their previous meeting at Optus Stadium.

“First and foremost, you look at someone like Jai Newcombe – he has been the number one rated player on the ground in four of his five finals,” Champion Data’s Corey Mobilio told SEN Breakfast.

“But what we have seen with Hawthorn’s stoppage profile this year is that they are gettable from stoppage and conceding scores back the other way.

“You go back to Round 9 against Fremantle; they conceded 49 points from stoppage. The Round 22 game in Brisbane; they conceded 49 points from stoppage as well, despite winning clearance.

“Them winning clearance hasn’t been the issue. It’s when they do concede the clearance, getting scored back the other way.

“Sometimes, you look at the individuals behind the ball. I look at someone like Tom Barrass – whoever he gets tonight will be interesting. It is a Josh Treacy, is it a Jye Amiss?

“I think Patrick Voss goes to James Sicily in that role – he did it early this week, a bit of a negating tag.”

While conceding scores out of the middle strikes as the Hawks’ major flaw, scoring from stoppage has been one of Fremantle’s major strengths.

Averaging over 40 points from stoppage this season, the Dockers ranked third in the competition only behind Brisbane and Sydney.

So, what can Hawthorn do to stem the flow out of the midfield?

“I look at someone like Murphy Reid,” Mobilio continued.

“We put it on watch a long time out, in terms of when he will get tagged.

“It happened late in the season with Koltyn Tholstrup (Melbourne). I think Blake Hardwick is the obvious matchup for him.

“I think you’ve got to put time into Murphy Reid. When he gets involved in the chain and is the meat in the sandwich in the chain, more often than not, that is put on the scoreboard.”

Tonight’s Qualifying Final kicks off at 8:10pm AEST, with the winner progressing to a Preliminary Final and the loser facing the winner of Geelong versus Carlton.

Listen to Champion Data representative Corey Mobilio's preview of tonight's matchup below: