Cornes’ Pass Marks: The minimum result for your club in 2027

It is the time of year to forecast what is possible for AFL clubs in season 2027.

Kane Cornes has forensically assessed each club to come up with that he believes is their pass mark for next year.

Cornes said: “What's the expectation on my team? What's realistic? What would we be happy with? What’s satisfactory?

“So I thought we would go through all 18 teams and tell you definitively what is a pass mark for 2027 so the minimum.”

These are the minimum results fans might accept.

“Your season is a fail if you do not reach this benchmark I have set,” Cornes added.

Cornes has done the first nine clubs in alphabetical order - Adelaide to GWS.

Kane’s Pass Mark: Preliminary Final

“They are hoping for significant growth from Dan Curtin and Sid Draper. They’re the two.

“In Curtin's case, can you go from a handy role player… to a budding star of the competition? It's about that time in his career where he needs to explode next year.

“So can Curtin emerge as a star and go from touching the footy 15 times on the wing and playing a bit of cameo midfield to being a genuine budding star?

“And can Sid Draper play? Well, we're about to find out because you're going to get those opportunities.

“But unfortunately for Matthew Nicks and the stage of his coaching career at season number eight and where we think they need to be, the pass mark for Adelaide is a Preliminary Final.

“I don't think they're going to reach that pass mark, but for where they are at, particularly in 2025 as well, and factor all that in. The pass mark, Crows fans, is a prelim final.

“And I think most Crows fans would agree with that. That's the benchmark for them.”

Kane’s Pass Mark: Preliminary Final

“After winning a third flag in a row, they have a new coach in Cameron Bruce. So what that brings remains to be seen.

“They've got some emerging young guns and a core group of players in their prime. But it's difficult when you've won three in a row to come up with a pass mark.

“I think the pass mark for them is a prelim final. If they're if they're around the mark again and this long dynasty of the finals run that they've had, which stretches eight years, and they're at the business end on prelim final day again I go, ‘You know what? That's remarkable for me. That's an incredible performance if you can reach a prelim final again’.

“This is sustained success that you can only admire. Yes, they’ve had some advantages, but if you reach a prelim I don't think anyone's going to be critical.”

Kane’s Pass Mark: Top 8.

“They sacked their coach, Michael Voss, and then they went on this amazing, dramatic mid-season turnaround under Josh Fraser who forced them to give him the job, really, in the end, even though he said he wasn't ready early days.

“His results just said that they had to give him the job. So they finished 10th with a record of 12, 10, and 1. And then they won their Wildcard final, which was a great result against Melbourne, who had been so impressive before losing to Geelong.

“Joel Amartey comes in as a free agent from Sydney. Lachie Whitfield, they get that done in the end for a packet of salt and vinegar crisps. So what a trade that was for them.

“Then they give Fraser the job, and the huge addition - Chris Fagan comes in to steady the ship in a full-time role.

“Huge turnover with their list. I just kind of like the new leaf that they've turned over at the Blues.

“I’m reasonably optimistic. I like their trade period. I like the new coach. I love Chris Fagan. I think the pass mark for them is top eight.”

Kane’s Pass Mark: Top 6.

“They finished ninth, twelve wins nine losses and two draws which of course were both against the Hawks. They lost by three points to the Western Bulldogs in the Wildcard final.

“They had injuries everywhere but they always have injuries everywhere because they're old and they continually have players on their list that have a record of getting injured.

“So if you're old and you've got an injury history, guess what? You're more likely to get injured again next year. So don't be surprised if Darcy Moore plays 10 games. Don't be surprised if Jamie Elliott can't get himself going. Don't be surprised if Jeremy Howe pulls a calf or does something. It's just what happens because they're old and they're injured.

“But they are so well coached and they have a system that they believe in like no other team. So they're going to be a hard out again.

“In comes Jesse Hogan. In comes Lachie Neale. There's a couple of big ones.

“If they can get this squad going and they can sort of manage the fitness with where a lot of their key players are at - even Brayden Maynard was sore and injured last year, Harry Perryman had soft tissue stuff.

“There's just injuries and carnage everywhere, I suspect that's going to be the same.

“I don't think they can win the premiership as we sit here right now.

“Pass mark for me is top six. Anything else I think is going to be a failure in 2027.”

Kane’s Pass Mark: Four wins (and improve defence).

“The Bombers, of course, well, they won the wooden spoon.

“Brad Scott was sacked after Round 11. That was a huge story. Dean Solomon took the caretaker role.

“They conceded, would you believe, just under 108 points per game. This Bombers team who has not been able to defend for the best part of 10 years, the amount of times we've spoken about Essendon's lack of defensive application in the last 10 years has been extraordinary.

“They got a new coach in Mark McVeigh and his good running mate in John Longmire. I love both of those additions to their coaching setup.

“Getting Kiddy Coleman in is good. I thought they just had to get that one deal done. Their ball movement from the back half has been a nightmare. And when he's going, he's as good a kick as there is in the competition.

“Zach Merrett was a big one. Of course, the former captain traded. Jordan Ridley finally gone, thank goodness.

“So after winning two games last year, the pass mark for me is four wins and conceding less than 95 points a game.

“You’ve still got to win four for me, as poor as you are. Be more competitive in games. Get some players back. Get a coach who can get the players to bind defensively.

“You've got rid of all the grumpy deadwood who didn't want to be there and were shocking for culture in Merrett and Ridley and these types of players.

“Four wins. It's not many. I played in some of the worst teams of all time and we still managed to get ourselves five wins.”

Kane’s Pass Mark: Win the premiership.

“Not easy for Fremantle.

“They won the minor premiership including a 14-game winning streak. Then led the Grand Final by 17 points with four minutes to go, if you don't mind, and they lost by seven. What a devastating result that was.

“Pass mark for Fremantle. Win the premiership.

“They're just in the absolute sweet spot with the core group of players. You've got Brayshaw, Serong, Jackson, Bolton, Treacy, Amiss… They're just all coming through together in the prime of their career.

“They are hardened. They are well led. They are well coached. And this is your time. If you don't strike probably now or next year…

“I know that is just an impossible pass mark, not impossible but ridiculous.

“It really can be the only thing. You can make the Grand Final again, but is everyone going to be happy if they lose another Grand Finall? Probably not.

“They are the only team that has that as a pass mark.”

Kane’s Pass Mark: Top 6.

“In comes Toby Greene, the Giants captain as a free agent. Rowan Marshall, they get that done, bang, they paid a good price to get him. And Jordan Ridley, hopefully he can play and doesn't rip his hamstring walking to the fridge. That'd be nice.

“So they're the big three recruits that they get in.

“For me, the interesting part about Geelong, as it always is, is those stars that are now well above the age of 30. We speak of Dangerfield at 36, Cameron at 33, Blicavs at 35, and Tom Stewart at 33, and what they can get out of them.

“Pass mark for me is top six for Geelong.

“They're not getting younger.

“What I do is respect teams more than any other teams that are constantly around the mark. The respect that I have for teams that continually in a league that is designed for you to be good and then terrible.”

Kane’s Pass Mark: Top 6.

“They started the season at seven and three, would you believe. Christian Petracca was a Brownlow Medal favourite. Then they went on a 10-match losing streak.

“Not easy to lose 10 in a row, is it?

“They are young. Started this season with an average age of 24, which meant they were the 15th oldest, or fourth youngest team in the competition.

“They're going to be around for a while, we hope. But I don't know where to read this group. And it is the most interesting team along with St Kilda for me, in how they go and for the prospects of their coach, Damien Hardwick and his legacy and everything.

“I think no one's legacy is probably more at stake than his and Ross Lyon’s this year from a coaching point of view.

“Pass mark for me, top six.

“They won a final the previous year. So the natural progression is to go one further.”

Kane’s Pass Mark: 8 wins.

“Missed the finals for the first time under Adam Kingsley this year.

“In comes zero and pretty much nothing for the Giants. Out goes Toby Greene, Jesse Hogan, Jake Stringer, Lachie Whitfield and Kieren Briggs.

“They also lose though, importantly, Brett Montgomery, Shane Mumford, Ben Hart and Craig Jennings from the coaches box.

“So turnover everywhere, they've got a new CEO, more carnage at the Giants than we've seen in any one club.

“I think they're rebuilding. Now they deny that they're rebuilding. But I think this is as much of a rebuild as you are going to see at any one club.

“Their pass mark is eight wins. Eight wins.

“Just be competitive. They absolutely go backwards, but be competitive which they will be.

“I think they struggle. I think this is a rebuild and a reset for the Giants.”