Why Carlton enters the 2024 trade period and off-season in a precarious list management position

Carlton finds itself in a precarious position with its list, as the squeeze for list spots is well and truly on.

The Blues will be red lining the salary cap in 2025, and the likes of Matt Kennedy, Matt Owies and Lewis Young could be forced out to ease some of that strain.

All three have been told to explore their options elsewhere, meanwhile the club will reportedly pay Zac Williams near seven figures next season.

They must navigate enormous extensions for Jacob Weitering and Tom De Koning, while key players in Adam Saad, Adam Cerra, George Hewett, Brodie Kemp and Mitch McGovern will also be out of contract in 2025.

All of this is to say – the Blues are walking a fine line in the upcoming trade period. They seemingly have the ability to bring in a Dan Houston level target despite everything, but is that really the right call?

Does the club need another big trade period swing? Will that fix their inconsistencies or do their problems lie in high performance and strategy and the ability to maximise what they already have?

Will the pressure to improve force them into a blockbuster move?

They have minimal resources to play with and are seemingly moving on capable depth on top of their five delistings. Will their list actually be better than it was in 2024? Does it need to be?

Moving on from injury prone trio Jack Martin, David Cuningham and Caleb Marchbank must have been a tough call, though it feels like the right one. These depth pieces need to be replaced, however.

So, how do they attack the trade period, particularly if Houston opts to go elsewhere?

Can they land a key defender upgrade on Young and a replacement for Marchbank? Someone with more size than Kemp and McGovern? Can they replace the midfield depth they’ve steadily lost over the last three seasons? Maybe add some speed?

Is their depth behind Harry and Charlie sufficient? Do they have a reliable third goal kicker if they lose Owies?

They have a lot to work through and minimal list spots and salary cap space to make it happen. They’ve cut five players, including ending Martin’s disappointing run with the club, and could have a maximum of nine or 10 list spots to fill if they empty out their trade block.

Carlton would have to give up another first-round pick to bring in Houston. The club is not necessarily stacked with talent under the age of 22 and Patrick Cripps will be 30 next season.

Their window is directly tied to their captain’s career and once that comes to a close, can they avoid bottoming out in-line with Tasmania’s introduction? Can they afford to not use pick 11 in what is reportedly a stacked draft?

2025 feels like an enormous year for the Carlton Football Club. President Luke Sayers and CEO Brian Cook look set to move on after bringing stability to the club. If they underperform again, will Michael Voss survive? There will certainly be significant turnover around him even if he does.

It all comes back to the results on the field and the pressure is on to make a deep finals run in 2025. With that comes internal pressure to improve the playing group, even though you could strongly argue that 2024’s failings had nothing to do with the level of talent available across the season.

Dan Houston is a star, but the Blues don’t lack for speed and dash off half-back, their issue has been a lack of maximising them strategically. They kick long and wide to contests out of the backline, rather than picking their way through defensive zones.

If they hand over pick 11, are they missing a great opportunity to add some young talent into a list that will soon begin to profile older? They’ll add the Camporeale brothers - Ben and Lucas - under father-son rules, with both expected to fall outside the top 35 picks.

Carlton has been prone to making big trade period splashes in recent years – Williams, Cerra, McGovern and Saad were all big additions, and Houston feels like a similar play.

What the Blues need is a revamped game-plan heading into year four under Voss. They need a significant high-performance shift and increased player availability, and they will hope for internal improvements from their younger brigade.

The Blues do not necessarily need to land a big fish in this trade period, though it’s hard to say no when a back-to-back All-Australian seemingly wants to come to your club.

What they need is to ensure they don’t list-manage themselves into a corner, forcing out key role players like Kennedy and Owies and bringing in another big name, all while needing to find extensions for Weitering and De Koning.

Carlton currently has the best list it has had since the start of the 21st century. Frankly, it’s not a high bar to clear.

And the pressure is mounting to make the right calls to ensure that window is open in 2025. Sometimes the toughest call is backing in what you’ve already got.

Carlton list situation

Delisted: Jack Martin, David Cuningham, Caleb Marchbank, Alex Mirkov, Dom Akuei

Out of contract: Jack Carroll, Matt Owies, Sam Durdin, Matt Carroll

Trade block: Matt Kennedy, Lewis Young, Jack Carroll, Matt Owies

Maximum list spots available if the cut those above: 10 (with Jack Silvagni returning from inactive list)

Draft picks: Pick 11, 31, 62, 65, 68 (Ben & Lucas Camporeale as father-sons)