The 4 certainties for the 2024 AFL Grand Final

Back for the final week this year, the SEN.com.au team gives you an insight into how every game will play out across the weekend.

Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.

But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.

Here is what we consider certainties for the Saturday afternoon's Grand Final between Sydney and Brisbane at the MCG.

Sydney

Heeney 20+ disposals, 1+ goal

The player of the finals so far looms as the potential game breaker for Sydney.

He followed up his ridiculous three-goal, 30-disposal game against the Giants in their Qualifying Final matchup with two goals and 24 disposals against Port Adelaide in the Prelim.

If he achieves those numbers again, he’ll be more than likely to win the Norm Smith.

With so much riding on his performance, expect Heeney to stand up in a big way as the Swans look to find him the footy at both the stoppage and inside 50.

He’s averaging 26 touches and has kicked 33 goals from 23 games in 2024 so far.

20 and one goal is a low bar for the superstar.

Grundy 15+ disposals, 25+ hitouts

Brodie Grundy will be breathing a sigh of relief that he won’t play against Oscar McInerney this Saturday who is out injured.

With a favourable matchup heading his way, can Grundy be the difference for the Swans?

In his two finals so far this September, Grundy has had 17 disposals and 38 hitouts as well as 15 disposals and 29 hitouts.

In a contested final, expect Grundy to at least reach those same numbers again.

He’s averaging 18 touches and 32 hitouts a game in 2024, and we’d expect him to at least get near those numbers on Saturday afternoon.

Lachlan Geleit

Brisbane

McClugage 20+ disposals

Hugh McClugage is averaging 24.8 disposals this season, which is the second highest numbers of his career.

The smooth mover has also recorded 20 disposals or more in nine of his last ten matches, he also isn’t scared of the biggest stage in football, as he starred in last year’s Grand Final, recording an equal second-team high 21 disposals, along with two massive goals.

McClugage is also enjoying a very impactful finals series in 2024 where he is averaging 25 disposals across three games, including a 27 disposal and one goal Prelim performance against Geelong.

We expect McClugage to easily cover the 20 disposal mark and be a key player in the 2024 AFL Grand Final.

Bailey 1+ goals

Zac Bailey hasn’t hit the scoreboard as much as he has in previous years but he is really hitting his stride late in the season.

The electric forward has kicked a goal in nine of his last ten matches and is really growing in confidence, he also kicked 2.2 in their Prelim win against Geelong.

After having plenty of chances in front of goal last week, we expect him to nail at least one this weekend.

Bailey is a big moments player, and this was backed up by his performance in last year’s Grand Final, where he emerged as a Norm Smith Medal chance after kicking two sensational first quarter goals.

We expect Bailey to take his chances come Grand Final day and kick at least one goal to help his Lions side.

Noah Desta